Risk Prediction Modeling
Division of Preventive Medicine

Publications List



Cook NR. Use and misuse of the ROC curve in risk prediction. Circ 2007; 115:928-35. PMID: 17309939


Cook NR. Statistical evaluation of prognostic versus diagnostic models: Beyond the ROC curve. Clin Chem 2008; 54:17-23. PMID: 18024533


Cook NR. Comments on “Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker”. Stat Med 2008; 27:191-5. PMID: 17671959


Cook NR, Ridker PM. Advances in measuring the effect of individual predictors of cardiovascular risk: the role of reclassification measures. Ann Intern Med 2009; 150:795-802. PMID: 19487714


Cook NR. Comment: Measures to summarize and compare the predictive capacity of markers. Int J Biostat 2010; 6(1): Article 22. PMCID: PMC3126670


Cook NR. Assessing the incremental role of novel and emerging risk factors. Curr Cardiovasc Risk Reports: Novel and Emerging Risk Factors 2010; 4:112-9. PMCID: PMC2904250


Cook NR. Methods for evaluating new biomarkers – a new paradigm. Int J Clin Practice 2010; 64(13):1723-7. PMCID: PMC3057673


Cook NR, Paynter NP. Performance of reclassification statistics in comparing risk prediction models. Biom J 2011; 53(2):237-58. PMCID: PMC3395053


Demler OV, Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr. Equivalence of improvement in area under ROC curve and linear discriminant analysis coefficient under assumption of normality. Stat Med. 2011; 30(12):1410-8. PMID: 21337594


Cook NR, Paynter NP. Comments on ‘Extensions of net reclassification improvement calculations to measure usefulness of new biomarkers’ by M.J. Pencina, R.B. D’Agostino, Sr. and E.W. Steyerberg (letter). Stat Med 2012; 31:93-5. PMID: 21344474


Demler OV, Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr. Misuse of DeLong test to compare AUCs for nested models. Stat Med. 2012; 31(23):2577-87. PMID: 22415937


Cook NR. Clinically relevant measures of fit? A note of caution. Am J Epidemiol 2012; 176:488-91. PMCID: PMC3530355


Paynter NP, Cook NR. A bias corrected net reclassification improvement for clinical subgroups. Med Decis Making 2013; 33(2):154-62. PMCID: PMC3605042


Demler OV, Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr. Impact of correlation on predictive ability of biomarkers. Stat Med. 2013; 32(24):4196-4210. PMID: 23640729


Leening MJG, Cook NR. Net reclassification improvement: a link between statistics and clinical practice. Eur J Epidemiol 2013; 28:21-3. PMID: 23291877


Demler OV, Paynter NP, Cook NR. Tests of calibration and goodness of fit in the survival setting. Stat Med 2015; 34(10):1659-80. PMID: 25684707


Paynter NP, Cook NR. Adding tests to risk-based guidelines: Evaluating improvements in prediction for an intermediate risk group. BMJ 2016 Sep 7; 354:i4450. doi: 10.1136/bmj.i4450. PMID: 27604897


Demler PV, Pencina MJ, Cook NR. Asymptotic distribution of ∆AUC, NRIs and IDI based on U-statistics theory. Stat Med 2017; 36(21):3334-3360. PMCID:PMC5931715


Cook NR. Quantifying the added value of new biomarkers: how and how not. Diag Prog Res 2018; 2:14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-018-0037-2


Demler OV, Paynter NP, Cook NR. Reclassification calibration test for censored survival data: performance and comparison to goodness of fit criteria. Diag Prog Res 2018; 2:16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-018-0034-5




Cook NR, Buring JE, Ridker PM. The effect of including C-reactive protein in cardiovascular risk prediction models for women. Ann Intern Med 2006; 145:21-29. PMID: 16818925


Ridker PM, Buring JE, Rifai N, Cook NR. Development and validation of improved algorithms for the assessment of global cardiovascular risk in women: The Reynolds Risk Score. JAMA 2007; 297:611-9. PMID: 17299196


Ridker PM, Paynter NP, Rifai N, Gaziano JM, Cook NR. C-reactive protein and parental history improve global cardiovascular risk prediction: the Reynolds Risk Score for men. Circ 2008; 118:2243-51. PMID: 18997194


Paynter NP, Chasman DI, Buring JE, Shiffman D, Cook NR, Ridker PM. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction with and without knowledge of genetic variation at chromosome 9p21.3. Ann Intern Med 2009; 150:65-72. PMID: 19153409


Paynter NP, Chasman DI, Paré G, Buring JE, Cook NR, Miletich JP, Ridker PM. Association between a literature-based genetic risk score and cardiovascular events in women. JAMA 2010; 303(7):631-7. PMCID: PMC2845522


Paynter NP, Mazer NA, Pradhan AD, Gaziano JM, Ridker PM, Cook NR. Cardiovascular risk prediction in diabetic men and women using hemoglobin A1c vs diabetes as a high-risk equivalent. Arch Intern Med 2011; 171(19):1712-8. PMCID: PMC3202025


Cook NR, Paynter NP, Eaton CB, Manson JE, Martin LW, Robinson JG, Rossouw JE, Wassertheil-Smoller S, Ridker PM. Comparison of the Framingham and Reynolds Risk Scores for global cardiovascular risk prediction in the multiethnic Women’s Health Initiative. Circ 2012; 125:1748-56. PMCID: PMC3324658


Cook NR, Paynter NP, Manson JE, Martin LW, Robinson JG, Wassertheil-Smoller S, Ridker PM. Clinical utility of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 for cardiovascular disease prediction in a multiethnic cohort of women. Clin Chem 2012; 58:1352-63. PMCID: PMC3621122


Paynter NP, Everett BM, Cook NR. CVD Risk Prediction in Women: Is There a Role for Novel Biomarkers? Clin Chem 2013; 60(1):88-97 PMID:24100805


Everett BM, Berger JS, Manson JE, Ridker PM, Cook NR. B-type natriuretic peptides improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction in a cohort of women. JACC 2014; 64:1789-97. PMCID: PMC4294182


Cook NR, Ridker PM. Further insight into the cardiovascular risk calculator controversy: the roles of statins, revascularizations, and under-ascertainment in the Women’s Health Study. JAMA Intern Med 2014; 174(12):1964-71. PMCID: PMC4394380


Paynter NP, LaMonte MJ, Manson JE, Martin LW, Phillips L, Ridker PM, Robinson JG, Cook NR. Comparison of lifestyle based to traditional CVD prediction in a multiethnic cohort of non-smoking women. Circ 2014; 130:1466-73. PMCID: PMC4206581


Chiuve SE, Cook NR, Shay CM, Rexrode KM, Albert CM, Manson JE, Willett WC, Rimm EB. Lifestyle-Based Prediction Model for the Prevention of CVD: The Healthy Heart Score. JAHA 2014; Nov 14;3(6). PMCID: PMC4338684


Ridker PM, Rose L, Cook NR. A proposal to incorporate trial data into a hybrid ACC/AHA algorithm for the allocation of statin therapy in primary prevention. JACC 2015; 65:942-8. PMID:25744012


Ridker PM, Cook NR. The Pooled Cohort Equations 3 years on: Building a stronger foundation. Circ 2016 Dec 6; 134(23):1789-1791. PMID:27920070


Cook NR, Ridker PM. Calibration of the Pooled Cohort Equations for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: an update. Ann Intern Med 2016; 165(11):786-794. PMID:27723890


Paynter NP, Balasubramanian R, Giulianini F, Wang DD, Tinker LF, Gopal S, Deik AA, Bullock K, Pierce KA, Scott J, Martínez-González MA, Estruch R, Manson JE, Cook NR, Albert CM, Clish CB, Rexrode KM. Metabolic Predictors of Incident Coronary Heart Disease in Women. Circ 2018 137(8):841-853. PMC5854187


Stuart JJ, Tanz LJ, Cook NR, Spiegelman D, Missmer SA, Rimm EB, Rexrode KM, Mukamal KJ, Rich-Edwards JW. Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2018;72(11):1252-1263. PMC6136445



Related methods

Baker SG, Cook NR, Vickers A, Kramer BS. Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction. JRSS-A 2009; 172:729-48. PMID: 2804257


Steyerberg EW, Vickers AJ, Cook NR, Gerds T, Gonen M, Obuchowski N, Pencina MJ, Kattan MW. Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for some traditional and novel measures. Epidemiol 2010; 21:128-38. PMCID: PMC3575184


Dorresteijn JAN, Visseren FLJ, Ridker PM, Wassink AMJ, Paynter NP, Steyerberg EW, van der Graaf Y, Cook NR. Estimating treatment effects for individual patients based on clinical trial results. BMJ 2011; 343:bmj.d5888. PMCID: PMC3184644


Dorresteijn JAN, Visseren FLJ, Ridker PM, Paynter NP, Wassink AMJ, Buring JE, van der Graaf Y, Cook NR. Aspirin for primary prevention of vascular events in women: individualized prediction of treatment effects. Eur Heart J 2011; 32(23):2962-9. PMCID: PMC3227855


Dorresteijn JA, Boekholdt SM, van der Graaf Y, Kastelein JJ, Larosa JC, Pedersen TR, Demicco DA, Ridker PM, Cook NR, Visseren FLJ. High-dose statin therapy in patients with stable coronary artery disease: treating the right patients based on individualized prediction of treatment effect. Circ 2013; 127(25):2485-93. PMID: 23674398


Pennells L, Kaptoge S, White IR, Thompson SG, Wood AM, and the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies. Am J Epidemiol 2014; 179(5):621–632. PMID: 24366051


van Kruijsdijk RC, Visseren FL, Ridker PM, Dorresteijn JA, Buring JE, van der Graaf Y, Cook NR. Individualised prediction of alternate-day aspirin treatment effects on the combined risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease and gastrointestinal bleeding in healthy women. Heart 2015; 101(5):369-76. PMID: 25475110


Dorresteijn YAN, Kaasenbrood L, Cook NR, van Kruijsdijk RCM, van der Graaf Y, Visseren FLJ, Ridker PM. How to translate clinical trial results into gain in healthy life-expectancy for individual patients. BMJ 2016; 352:i1548. PMID: 27029390


Xu H, Qian J, Paynter NP, Zhang X, Whitcomb BW, Tworoger SS, Rexrode KM, Hankinson SE, Balasubramanian R. Estimating the receiver operating characteristic curve in matched case control studies. Stat Med 2019 Feb 10; 38(3):437-451. PMID: 30467878



Brigham & Women’s Hospital

Division of Preventive Medicine  | 900 Commonwealth Avenue East  |  Boston, MA 02215  | 617.278.0796

email: ncook@bwh.harvard.edu